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A week into the uncertain security situation in Sudan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi directed officials to prepare contingency evacuation plans for about 3,000 Indian citizens stuck in the conflict-ridden country.
The US, UK, Germany, Spain, Japan and South Korea are among the countries that are moving in to evacuate their citizens from Sudan.
Prime Minister Modi assessed the most recent developments in Sudan and received a first-hand report of the conditions on the ground, with specific focus on the safety of over 3,000 Indian citizens presently located throughout the country.
He emphasised the importance of maintaining close communication with neighboring countries in the region, as well as those with significant numbers of citizens in Sudan.
According to officials, the Indian embassy in Khartoum is located just opposite the airport, and there has been shelling in that area as well.
Sudan has been witnessing deadly fighting between the country’s regular army and a paramilitary group called Rapid Support Forces for the past one week.
So far, 413 people have been killed and 3,551 others wounded in the violence, according to the latest toll from the World Health Organisation.
Discussing the worsening situation in Sudan with Guterres, Jaishankar underscored the need for “successful diplomacy”, which can lead to an early ceasefire and create the ground situation for the safety and welfare of the people in the strife-torn African nation.
India strongly supports efforts towards an early ceasefire, leading to creation of safe corridors. Will continue to work closely with the UN and other partners in this regard.
India had said that the situation in Sudan is “very tense” and that it is focusing on ensuring the safety and well-being of the Indian community, including working on contingency plans and possible evacuation.
New Delhi is keeping a close watch on the developments in Sudan besides being in touch with relevant countries, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said at a media briefing, adding that any evacuation plan will depend on the ground situation.
Express Network
Little evidence China serious at talks table with India says US (Page no. 9)
(GS paper 2, International Relation)
Reiterating that the United States supports a resolution of the Indo-China border dispute through a negotiated settlement and direct conversations between the two countries, Biden Administration's point person for South and Central Asia said the US sees little evidence that Beijing is seriously approaching these talks with a sense of goodwill.
Our position on India's border dispute with China is longstanding. We support a resolution of that border dispute through a negotiated settlement and through direct conversations between the two countries.
Having said that, we see little evidence that the Chinese government is seriously approaching these talks with a sense of goodwill. What we see is the opposite.
We see provocations that happen on the line of actual control on a pretty regular basis,” Lu said in response to a question. India, the senior State Department official said, can count on the United States' standing with India as it faces the challenge of its northern neighbour.
“We demonstrated that resolve in 2020 during the Galwan crisis, and we continue to find opportunities to cooperate with India on information but also on military equipment, exercises and that will go forward into the years ahead.
Cheetah project overestimated carrying capacity of Kuno Park: Namibia experts (Page no. 10)
(GS paper 3, Environment)
Project Cheetah overestimated the carrying capacity of Kuno National Park and did not factor in the unique spatial requirement of the species before flying in 20 spotted cats from Africa, according to a group of Namibian researchers who have radio-collared and studied more than 150 African cheetahs.
In a letter published in the journal ‘Conservation Science and Practice’ on Thursday, they warned of the likely fallout: multiple cheetahs fanning out of the national park in search of territories in the larger Kuno landscape dotted by 169 villages.
India’s Cheetah Action Plan 2021 claimed that the 748 sq km Kuno National Park could hold 21 cheetahs — a climbdown from up to 32 cheetahs envisaged in 350 sq km Kuno sanctuary in 2011.
African cheetahs in unfenced reserves, show records, usually occur at less than 1 animal per 100 sq km — a level, say sources, the field staff at Kuno is already finding realistic and the growing consensus at the field level is for moving the South African consignment of 12 cheetahs to an alternative site.
From 7-8 per 100 sq km in 2010 to 3 per 100 sq km in 2021, and now apparently 1 per 100 sq km, the drop in anticipated cheetah density in the project plan implies a reduction of 72-88% in over a decade.
According to Namibian researchers, the cheetah project overestimated Kuno’s carrying capacity based on the assumption that augmenting the prey base by shifting and stocking herbivores will support more cheetahs but cheetah density does not depend on availability of food alone.
In the socio-spatial organisation of cheetahs, only some adult males hold individual territories. In the large undefended space between such scattered territories, float other cheetah males, along with females.
Depending on multiple factors, the territories can be big or small, but two territory centres are always separated by 20-23 km.
This deeply rooted behaviour, according to Dr Bettina Wachter, one of the researchers with the Cheetah Research Project in Namibia, is likely to play out in Kuno as well.
In Namibia, cheetah territories are larger and prey density lower, in East Africa territories are smaller and prey density higher—but the distance between territories is constant and no new territories are established in between.
For the reintroduction plan in Kuno, these distances were ignored,” Dr Wachter was quoted in a release by the Berlin-based Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research where she is a senior scientist.
Given that Kuno national park is an unfenced forest of approximately 17 by 44 km, the researchers estimated that the three males flown in from Namibia would occupy the entire area, forcing the South African male cats to venture out of the national park and invite conflict.
Editorial
Terror in Poonch (Page no. 14)
(GS paper 3, Internal Security)
National Security Guard (NSG) officials on Saturday morning visited the site of the terror attack in the Bhatta Durian area of Jammu and Kashmir’s Poonch district where five Army soldiers were killed and another was seriously injured on Thursday in an ambush by terrorists.
Sources said that the visiting officials are from NSG’s National Bomb Data Centre (NBDC). Created in 1988, the NBDC monitors, records and analyses all bombing incidents in the country, as well as those deemed important globally, especially those related to improvised explosive devices (IEDs), so as to find patterns.
NIA and Intelligence Bureau teams, along with the J&K Director General of Police Dilbagh Singh, Jammu Additional DGP Mukesh Singh and senior security force officials had visited the spot.
The DGP and ADGP later held a meeting with senior Army and police officers to review the situation emerging out of the terrorist activities in Poonch and Rajouri districts, where two terror attacks have taken place this year.
While five Army soldiers were killed and another injured in a terrorist ambush near Bhatta Durian on the Bhimber Gali-Surankote road in Poonch district on April 20, seven civilians were killed and 14 others injured in a terror attack at Upper Dangri in the adjoining Rajouri district on January 1-2.
A massive search and cordon operation has been launched in the Bhatta Durian forests with Rashtriya Rifles using drones and sniffer dogs to track down the terrorists. The police have so far detained 11 people for questioning.
Meanwhile, the movement of vehicular traffic on the Bhimber Gali-Surankote stretch of the Rajouri-Poonch National Highway remained suspended for the third day on Saturday. All the vehicles moving to Poonch were being asked to proceed via Mendhar.
World
Unusual heat in 2022 led to 15000 deaths i Europe: WMO report (Page no. 16)
(GS paper 3, Environment)
The unusual heat in Europe last year, during which several countries experienced record-breaking temperatures, contributed to the deaths of at least 15,000 people, more than any other single extreme climate event, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organisation.
Europe experienced numerous heatwaves, with significant heatwaves occurring in each of the three summer months. During the summer, around 4,600 deaths in Spain, 4,500 in Germany, 2,800 in the United Kingdom (among those aged 65 and older), 2,800 in France and 1,000 in Portugal were associated with the unusual heat,” the annual State of Global Climate report by the WMO said about the year 2022.
Several parts of Europe had recorded their highest-ever temperatures last year. The United Kingdom, for example, experienced 40-plus degree Celsius for the first time ever, while Ireland had its highest temperature since 1887. Hamburg, in Germany, became the most northern part of the country to ever record 40 degree Celsius. Even Sweden, one of the coldest countries, recorded temperatures in excess of 37 degree Celsius last year.
This happened despite the prevalence of a strong La Nina event which is known to have an overall cooling impact on the planet.
On an average, global temperature in 2022 was 1.15 degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial times, which is the average of the 1850-1900 period.
This is in line with what the WMO had said in its provisional report for 2022 last year. The provisional report had been released during the climate change conference in Egypt when about two months were still remaining in the year.
The warmest year on record so far has been 2016 when average global temperatures were measured to be 1.28 degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial times, not very far away from the 1.5 degree Celsius milestone, which the world is aiming to avoid.
The years 2015 to 2022 have been the eight warmest years in the 173 years of direct record keeping. The year 2022 would be fifth or sixth on that list of warmest years, WMO said.
It said the concentrations of three main greenhouse gases — carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide — responsible for global warming were all at record levels in 2021, the latest year for which confirmed values are available. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere now exceed 415 parts per million.
Just a few years ago, 400 ppm was considered a danger mark and the effort was to keep the concentrations below that. Now, the attempt is to ensure that the rise is contained to as low a value as possible.
Explained
Assam – Arunachal agreement on border: the dispute and its resolution (Page no. 17)
(GS paper 2, Governance)
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and his Arunachal Pradesh counterpart Pema Khandu signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) over the long-standing border dispute between the two states, a development Home Minister Amit Shah described as a “historic occasion”.
The two states share a roughly 800-kilometre long border and the disputed areas the MoU deals with are 123 border villages, which span 12 districts of Arunachal Pradesh and 8 districts of Assam.
Before North East Frontier Agency or NEFA (former name of what is now Arunachal Pradesh) was carved out of Assam in 1954, a sub-committee headed by then Assam Chief Minister Gopinath Bordoloi had made a set of recommendations in relation to the administration of NEFA and submitted a report in 1951.
In line with the recommendations of this report, around 3,648 kilometres of the “plain” area of Balipara and Sadiya foothills were transferred from NEFA to Assam’s then Darrang and Lakhimpur districts.
When Arunachal was made a Union Territory in 1972, it contended that several forested tracts in the plains that had traditionally belonged to hill tribal chiefs and communities were unilaterally transferred to Assam.
In April 1979, a high-powered tripartite committee was constituted to delineate the boundary on the basis of Survey of India maps, as well as discussions with both sides.
While around 489 km of the 800 km were demarcated by 1983-84, futher demarcation could not take place because Arunachal did not accept the recommendations and claimed several kilometres of the 3,648 sq km, which was transferred to Assam in line with the 1951 report.
Assam objected to this and filed a case in the Supreme Court in 1989, highlighting an “encroachment” made by Arunachal Pradesh.
To resolve the dispute between the states, the apex court appointed a local boundary commission in 2006, headed by a retired SC judge. In September 2014, the local commission submitted its report.
Several recommendations were made (some of which suggested Arunachal Pradesh get back some of the territory which was transferred in 1951), and it was suggested that both states should arrive at a consensus through discussions. However, nothing came of it.
Assam CM Sarma and Arunachal CM Khandu commenced CM-level talks over this border issue on January 24, 2022. In their second meeting on April 20, 2022, they made some key decisions.
The first was that the border issues between both the states would be confined to a list of 123 villages which Arunachal Pradesh had claimed before the Local Commission in 2007.
The second was that a boundary line delineated by the high powered tripartite committee in 1980 would be taken as the notified boundary and all realignment would be done in relation to it.
Economy
Repo pause makes sense for India, can’t compare to advanced economies (Page no. 21)
(GS paper 3, Economy)
India’s inflation is only around one-and-a-half times the target of 4 per cent while in many advanced economies, inflation is running at around four or five times their target of 2 per cent.
Therefore, the two situations are not comparable at all. Moreover, based on projected inflation 3-4 quarters ahead, the real interest rate in India is positive while in many advanced economies, the real policy rate is still negative.
This difference has arisen partly because the fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic was a lot more aggressive in advanced economies than in India. A pause therefore makes a lot more sense in India than in advanced economies.
Currently, the MPC is responding to excessive inflation, and is setting the policy rate at a level sufficient to glide it down to the target of 4 per cent.
Revisions of a few tenths of a percent in the projected growth rate would not make a material difference to the policy rate path at present.
It is achievable if all goes well, but there are severe risks to this forecast both from global factors and from domestic headwinds.
The projected fall in the inflation rate is said to be a consequence of what the MPC has already done, and not what it will do in the coming months.
Absent any fresh inflationary shocks from an adverse monsoon or global commodity prices, I expect inflation to fall towards the target without any further policy actions. Severe inflationary shocks might require a monetary response as I have written in my statement.