Churn in France (GS Paper 2, IR)
Introduction
- French President Emmanuel Macron is known for taking risks.
- He first came to power in 2017 by creating a new political party that aimed to transcend the traditional left-right divide, thereby marginalizing established parties on both sides.
Unpopularity of Macron’s Reforms
- The current political climate in France is polarized, leaving little room for moderation.
- Macron’s key reforms, particularly the changes to the pension system, have been deeply unpopular.
- The yellow vest protests of 2018, sparked by Macron’s green tax on fuel, are a testament to this discontent.
- Losing his legislative majority in June 2022 has further hampered his ability to enact his agenda, resulting in a stalemate in the French parliament.
The Challenge from Far-Right Candidate
- Marine Le Pen has been rebranding her National Rally party to make it more palatable to mainstream voters, a process she refers to as “de-demonisation.”
- She no longer advocates for France’s exit from the EU but seeks to collaborate with other right-wing leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
- Le Pen’s platform remains tough on immigration and favors economic nationalism, opposing globalization and multiculturalism.
The New Left in France and Its Agenda
- On the other side of the spectrum, left-wing parties have formed a “new popular front” with promises that include lowering the retirement age to 60, increasing minimum wages, boosting public sector pay, reducing income tax, and introducing a wealth tax.
- While these proposals appeal to many voters, they could exacerbate France’s already high public debt, which stands at 110% of GDP.
The Probable Scenario After the Snap Election
- The upcoming legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 are unpredictable, but it seems unlikely that Macron’s party will secure an outright majority.
- This would force Macron to “co-habit” with a prime minister from a different party, likely Marine Le Pen’s young protégé, Jordan Bardella.
- A hung parliament is also a possibility, which would lead to greater political instability in France.
The Significance of France in Europe and the World
- France is the EU’s second-largest economy and the only European country with nuclear weapons.
- It is also a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, making its political stability crucial for both Europe and the global community.
Ramifications of the Results of the Snap Election for Europe and Beyond
The results of France’s snap election could have far-reaching implications:
- A government with a far-right or far-left prime minister and Macron as president could weaken France’s influence in shaping EU foreign and security policy.
- Such a government could clash with the EU over membership obligations, disrupting the Franco-German partnership that drives the EU.
- France’s support for Ukraine might diminish, as Marine Le Pen has opposed sending French troops and would prioritize domestic spending.
- The left’s pro-Palestinian stance could strain relations with French Jews and Israel.
- An inward-looking, protectionist France could weaken the EU’s global influence.
- A possible return of Trump to the White House, coupled with a weakened EU, could benefit countries like China and Russia.
