The Asian edge (GS Paper 2, IR)
Introduction
- US President Joe Biden’s summits with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines last week at the White House, and China’s strong reaction, suggest that some important new political and military markers are being laid down in Asia.
- Compared to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza — a conflict in Asia between China, on the one hand, and the US and its allies in the region on the other, would perhaps be more consequential.
Impact of a US-China standoff on India
- Today, the US and China are the world’s foremost economic and military powers, and a direct confrontation between them in Asia, the world’s most dynamic region, could arguably shake the world to its core.
- India, which has been locked in a prolonged military standoff with China in the high Himalayas over the last four years and in an expanding strategic partnership with the US, will inevitably be affected by any military confrontation between Washington and Beijing.
- Equally important, Delhi, unlike in the past, will have an important role in shaping the new and edgy Asian dynamic.
Transformation of pacifist Japan into a major military powerhouse in Asia
- One of the significant outcomes of Washington’s summits last week is the transformation of Japan from a passive and pacifist nation into a potential military powerhouse in Asia.
- Since the Second World War, Japan has stood in the military shadow of the US as a protectorate.
- In Washington, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has signed off on agreements to integrate the military command structures of the two countries and contribute actively — with a growing defence budget, a more powerful missile arsenal, and the joint development and production of weapons with the US — in deterring Chinese military coercion and promoting a rules-based Indo-Pacific order.
- In the first-ever trilateral summit with the US and the Philippines, Kishida agreed to join hands with Biden in defending the territorial sovereignty of the Philippines, which has been under relentless pressure from the PLA in the South China Sea.
- Biden and Kishida also outlined an agenda of economic cooperation with Manila — especially in infrastructure development — as an alternative to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
China’s attempt to fight USA’s containment policies
- China, unsurprisingly, has warned the US against “bloc politics” in Asia and the attempt to create a “mini Nato” in the east.
- Beijing is, of course, trying to counter American efforts at isolating it in Asia.
- In the last few days, it hosted the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, received the former president of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou, and welcomed the leaders of Vietnam and the president-elect of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto.
- Beijing is determined to defeat the region’s economic decoupling from China and a consolidation of its neighbours into a countervailing coalition backed by the US.
The illusion in India for better Indo-China relations
- Some in Delhi believe Beijing may be ready for a fresh outreach to prevent India from getting closer to the US and boosting an Asian coalition against China.
- Delhi has long nurtured these illusions, only to be disappointed every time.
- Seeing real progress on restoring peace and tranquillity on the border, disturbed rudely by the PLA in the summer of 2020, must remain a precondition before any Indian exploration of a political reset with China.
Conclusion
- Important new political and military markers are being laid down by the US and China in Asia. Delhi will have an important role to play. Delhi must not be any illusion of a benign China, but it must assess the intention of China with realistic eyes.
